The original paper is in English. Non-English content has been machine-translated and may contain typographical errors or mistranslations. ex. Some numerals are expressed as "XNUMX".
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The original paper is in English. Non-English content has been machine-translated and may contain typographical errors or mistranslations. Copyrights notice
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Cette étude tente de construire une méthode de classement précise pour cinq matchs de ballon en équipe aux Jeux Olympiques. Premièrement, l’étude utilise une méthode d’évaluation statistique des jeux de ballon en équipe. Un seul paramètre, appelé note, montre la force et les compétences de chaque équipe. Nous supposons que la différence entre les valeurs de notation explique le taux de notation dans un match basé sur un modèle de régression logistique. Les valeurs de notation sont estimées à partir des scores des grandes compétitions internationales organisées avant les Jeux Olympiques de Rio. Les pronostics aux Jeux Olympiques de Rio démontrent que la méthode proposée peut prédire les résultats des matchs avec plus de précision que les classements mondiaux officiels ou les points du classement mondial. La méthode proposée a permis d’obtenir 262 pronostics corrects sur 370 matchs, alors que l’utilisation du classement mondial officiel n’a abouti qu’à 238 pronostics corrects. Ce résultat montre une différence significative entre les deux critères.
Eiji KONAKA
Meijo University
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Eiji KONAKA, "A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information,
vol. E102-D, no. 6, pp. 1145-1153, June 2019, doi: 10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315.
Abstract: This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.
URL: https://global.ieice.org/en_transactions/information/10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315/_p
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@ARTICLE{e102-d_6_1145,
author={Eiji KONAKA, },
journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information},
title={A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games},
year={2019},
volume={E102-D},
number={6},
pages={1145-1153},
abstract={This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.},
keywords={},
doi={10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315},
ISSN={1745-1361},
month={June},}
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TY - JOUR
TI - A Unified Statistical Rating Method for Team Ball Games and Its Application to Predictions in the Olympic Games
T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information
SP - 1145
EP - 1153
AU - Eiji KONAKA
PY - 2019
DO - 10.1587/transinf.2018EDP7315
JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information
SN - 1745-1361
VL - E102-D
IS - 6
JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information
Y1 - June 2019
AB - This study tries to construct an accurate ranking method for five team ball games at the Olympic Games. First, the study uses a statistical rating method for team ball games. A single parameter, called a rating, shows the strength and skill of each team. We assume that the difference between the rating values explains the scoring ratio in a match based on a logistic regression model. The rating values are estimated from the scores of major international competitions that are held before the Rio Olympic Games. The predictions at the Rio Olympic Games demonstrate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the match results than the official world rankings or world ranking points. The proposed method enabled 262 correct predictions out of 370 matches, whereas using the official world rankings resulted in only 238 correct predictions. This result shows a significant difference between the two criteria.
ER -